Reset: Disc-Free Xbox Unlikely, but Possible
As GDC wound down in San Francisco last week, rumors began swirling from Europe that the next Xbox would
not include a disc drive. This would present huge financial ramifications for brick and mortar retail and the industry at large. I want to start by saying that I'm all for a disc-free system. I realize that a lot of you enjoy collecting, but after piling up closets full of games that stretch from here to Pennsylvania, eventually passion begins to give way to practicality. As much as I would welcome such a revolution, there are many hurdles to overcome for it to become a reality.
If you're trying to figure out if such a paradigm shift will work then you must first establish just how it
could work. Here are a few options to consider:
[h=3]Games Released on Flash Media
Maybe Nintendo was way ahead of its time with the cartridge-based N64.
[/h]We see this with the
PlayStation Vita and the
Nintendo 3DS already. Both systems essentially use cartridges filled with flash memory. Assuming games maintain their current sizes, 32GB would be required to hold the big-budget releases. Right now an SD card of that size goes for $26 on
newegg.com. Sure, Microsoft would get it much cheaper than that, but it's still cost prohibitive when compared to relatively cheap DVD and Blu-ray discs.
Probability: 25 Percent
[h=3]Games Available at Hot Spots
You don't need stores to distribute video games anymore.
[/h]As we've seen with Blockbuster's business over the last few years, it's very easy for a retail outlet to be replaced by a machine sitting outside a 7-11. For this to work the console would have to come with a rewritable “game card.” Essentially, a mini hard drive that you would plug into the machine to download games. Then you take the hard drive home, plug it into your console, and away you go. This would absolutely crush GameStop's used game business, though renting games would still be possible as the file could just be set to expire after 72 hours. If you
were connected, you could then have the option to purchase the full game minus what you already spent on the rental. Once you transfer the game to your console, the game card is wiped clean and ready for your next purchase. I see a Red Box every couple blocks in Los Angeles. It wouldn't take long for these machines to spread just as quickly.
Probability: 50 Percent
[h=3]Games for Download Only[/h]
The idea of a console requiring its users to be connected to the internet could be profitable, but not to the level that a Microsoft, Nintendo, or Sony require. I have no doubt that one day this will be a reality, but I've been told by multiple developers that less than half of the people who buy their game ever connect to it online. To go with a system like this right now would essentially cut off half of your potential user base. This is another idea that I'd have no problem with as services like Steam have proven how incredible it can be. I just can't see it happening for another 10 years.
Probability: 40 Percent
[h=3]A Cloud Streaming Service[/h]
If you think this idea is a good one, I implore you to try out the leader in the space,
OnLive. While I must admit that it works better than I thought it would, it's simply not adequate for playing shooters and fighting games. The response time just isn't there. Couple this with the fact that everyone will have to have an internet connection and it becomes even less likely.
Probability: 10 Percent
So the big question becomes, just how likely is it that the next Xbox is a disc-free system? It's not likely at all. You have several things working against it.
A lot of consumers like to have a physical product to show for their money.
Connectivity statistics aren't encouraging.
Hot spot penetration is a concern.
If there's one idea that's plausible, it's a combination of download-only and hot spots. With half of this equation already satisfied by Xbox Live, then the challenge becomes getting machines out to every convenience store, grocer, and shopping mall around the world. That's not an easy task. The other issue–no matter what approach is taken–is that used games would effectively be eliminated. That’s good for the publishers, but not so great for budget-minded consumers. I would imagine there would be a huge backlash from players if this were to be the case, but then Microsoft could respond with a tiered pricing structure that lowers the price of a game over time. Regardless, we won’t have to wait long to get the answer as E3 is just a few months away.
Probability: 60 Percent
and it was that problem u mentioned darklord 
EternalBlizzard:
faraany3k:
