Telenor is shit so is the ufone. Zong and Ufone could be a better option.
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Telenor and Zong merging would be anti-competitive.
Telenor and Ufone? Makes sense. It made sense before to them (when Warid or Ufone were under scrutiny) and it still makes sense. Yes, you'd have one less operator (and thus, greater chances of market collusion), but
Telenor sub + Ufone Sub (for May):
44,570,096 + 22,629,644
= 67,199,740. That's ~ 8 M more than the merged Mobilink + Warid.
Combined spectrum: let's see.
850 Mhz: 10 + 0 = 10 Mhz (Jazz: 0)
900 Mhz: 4.8 + 7.6 = 12.4 Mhz (Jazz: the same)
1800 Mhz: 8.8 + 6 = 14.8 Mhz (these two are conjoined) (Jazz: 18.8 + 6 = 24.8 Mhz)
2100 Mhz: 5 + 5 = 10 Mhz (also conjoined) (Jazz: the same).
For 2G, let's see the current division of frequencies:
Telenor: 900Mhz (4.8Mhz) + 1800Mhz (5Mhz - out of 8.8Mhz) = 9.8Mhz.
Ufone: 900Mhz (2.6Mhz) + 1800 Mhz (3Mhz out of 6 Mhz) = 5.6Mhz.
Jazz: irrelevant right now, but for pedantic reason: 900Mhz (1.8Mhz excluding 4G + 2.6 Mhz, excluding 3G) + 1800Mhz (6Mhz +3.8Mhz) = 13.2Mhz. What a waste.
For 3G, let's see the division of frequencies:
Telenor: 850Mhz (5 Mhz) + 2100Mhz (5 Mhz) = 10 Mhz.
Ufone: 9000Mhz (5 Mhz) + 2100Mhz (5 Mhz) = 10 Mhz.
Jazz: 2100 Mhz (10 Mhz) + 900 Mhz (5 Mhz) = 15 Mhz.
Since Telenor's and Ufone's 3G blocks are conjoined, they can easily get 10Mhz and DC-HSPA+. in 2100Mhz, and one operator can use their 900Mhz block or 850Mhz block to free up the spectrum, leaving another 5Mhz spare - so 15Mhz can be divided, bringing them at par with Jazz. Okay, so it's decided 5Mhz is spare - either in the 900Mhz block or the 850Mhz block, but hoping they make the right decision, they'll use Ufone's vast 900Mhz coverage and free up 850Mhz for full 10Mhz (fat chance of that logic happening...)
For 4G, let's see the current division of frequencies:
Telenor: 850Mhz (5Mhz) + 1800Mhz (3 Mhz) = 8 Mhz
Ufone: 1800Mhz (3Mhz, I believe) (so 3Mhz is left for GSM in 1800 and 2.6 Mhz in 900Mhz)
Jazz: 900 Mhz (3Mhz) + 15 Mhz (1800 Mhz) = 18 Mhz (in Islamabad only, since it's not a part of Pakistan... otherwise, no 900Mhz 4G. But for simplicity sake, let's assume 18 Mhz.
Because Telenor and Ufone have conjoined blocks in 1800Mhz, they can easily allocate 10Mhz (out of 14.8Mhz) and remember how 10Mhz freed up from 850Mhz (because we're assuming their 3G frequencies don't go below 900Mhz)? So 10 + 10 Mhz CA = boom! 20Mhz 4G.
How does that leave the two merged entities with 2G? Ufone and Telenor have a combined holding of 14.8Mhz in 1800Mhz --> so 4.8Mhz (1800Mhz, after using 10Mhz for 4G) + 4.8Mhz (Telenor 900Mhz, because 3G requires 5Mhz minimum - and Telenor doesn't have that much spectrum in 900Mhz) + 2.6Mhz (Ufone 900Mhz) = 12.2Mhz (Jazz: 14.2Mhz).
So. Ufone's got pretty good urban coverage. Telenor has good rural coverage. Both, combined, can match Mobilink's spectrum holdings, coverage and portfolio. All operators have a similar amount of spectrum (or so) for 4G. 2G spectrum is the same. 3G spectrum is the same. The only thing would be that Zong would remain on the third place (like it currently is), Jazz would become second, and the combined entity would become the largest, giving it a headstart of 7 M customers. And people don't want to leave Ufone because of their supercard. People in the suburbs won't leave Telenor because of Easypaisa and network coverage.
For me, it's a no-brainer. As for competition: the new entity + Jazz would be competing with each other, whilst Zong would still have a considerable lead in data customers which might be forced to lower its data prices (but then, nobody has their level of 4G coverage). Jazz has very fast aggregate 4G speeds. Telenor would be forced to up their game.
Would it stifle competition? Operators have been gradually increasing prices anyway owing to the USD/PKR parity, Jazz has (had) outsourced their 4G network management to Ericsson (not sure about 3G), Telenor is doing it with Nokia... so... the experienced companies are trying to do something in varying quantities... which means prices will increase anyway. But - operators will now incentivize customers to stick to their networks (such as Jazz with their thousands of on-net minutes and meager off-net minutes, or Telenor with more off-net minutes). And since Jazz is the most expensive of the lot, they might be required to rationalize their prices. And it would probably make the operators fix their data services quality though.
I say go for it! Hey PTA, Telenor or Ufone, if you need an analyst, please hire me. I'll be willing to help as long as I get a decent income.